Predictive model for the survival, death, and growth of Salmonella typhimurium in broiler hatchery.

Contamination and penetration of salmonellae into hatching eggs may comprise an important link in the transmission of these bacteria to growing birds, processed carcasses, and eventually to the consumer. In this study, a predictive model for Salmonella typhimurium as a function of initial cell number and storage or incubation time at a nearly constant temperature and humidity was developed and evaluated to compute the bacterial load after 1 d (holding), 10 d (candling), 17 d (incubation), and 21 d (chick processing). Experiments were conducted for S. typhimurium with both high initial bacterial load (HIBL) and low initial bacterial load (LIBL) of 6.0 and 3.5 log cfu/egg, respectively. Eggs with HIBL experienced 2.0 log reduction in the bacterial load after holding at 4 degrees C for 24 h and 3.0 log increase in the bacterial load during incubation and hatch at approximately 37 degrees C between 17 d and 21 d. Experimental data showed that bacterial load of S. typhimurium from holding to chick processing changed from 3.7 to 6.6 log cfu/egg and from 3.7 to 2.7 log cfu/egg in HIBL and LIBL eggs, respectively. The developed model was able to predict bacterial load of S. typhimurium from 3.6 to 6.6 log cfu/egg in HIBL eggs and from 3.4 to 2.7 log cfu/egg in LIBL eggs from holding to chick processing. Root mean square errors and plot of predicted compared with observed bacterial load of S. typhimurium in contaminated eggs yielded a good fit and prediction. The predicted and experimental results indicated that incubated broiler eggs have an increase in internal bacterial loads between incubation and hatch. This model can be used as a tool to predict bacterial load of S. typhimurium in contaminated eggs as well as help predict the behavior of S. typhimurium during hatch.